Well YH, even if your motives were suspicious, it'd be one damn boring thesis, LOL! All kidding aside, to be candid, you really haven't missed much. As you well know, pricing dynamics in this industry space don't necessarily follow broader macro-economic trends. Only supply / demand functions at any given moment. I remember your thread regarding SY prices when they started skyrocketing in early 2012, and while I don't have hard data in front of me to reference, I don't think pricing has changed much south of the border since that time, if at all. They've certainly not gone down, but I don't think they've ticked upwards much either. In my estimation, the SY powers that be realize that to push the prices any higher would likely trigger diminishing revenue returns. At the end of the day, you can't suck blood out of a turnip, and once you've emptied a wallet, all the price increases in the world won't make more money fall out, unless of course you happen to be a member of the Federal Reserve and can print more! /default_biggrin.png
As for growth areas, at least on the supply side, there sadly hasn't been much. The SY network continues to thrive, but the vast majority of domestic email sources have gone private and underground, and at least from my observations and the Serbian BZ suppliers seem to have diminished in scope somewhat, at least judging by what's discussed on the board. Of course, the one primary change since you've been gone is the Starlite situation, which I'm sure you're aware as, at least as much so as the rest of us. Obviously, Jim's abrupt departure from the industry put a major kink in the supply chain, and sent hundreds scrambling. It appears as though TTM has been the biggest winner in the whole Starlite debacle, having picked up significant clientele in the wake of Starlite's demise.
If there's one thing that I've observed over this past year that stands out above all else, I'd have to say that it's the continued consolidation of the IOP world at the top of the food chain, coupled with the smaller vendors on the opposite end opting to take their chips off the table, choosing caution over growth by going private. The later phenomena can be see across the entire industry space, with some of the Airmail Group sites having now closed themselves off to new customers. The same has occurred with some of the SY vendors, all the way down to the almost non-existent "open for new business" email vendors, the best of whom have all gone private. The white elephant in the room these days, in my opinion, is that the IOP world in the post Haight Act days has managed to consolidate itself down to the point where TTM, The Airmail Group and the SY network control a frighteningly large share of the market where the most popular and desired products are concerned. It certainly wouldn't take some clandestine intelligence gathering operation to discern that. One can't help but wonder what would happen if global enforcement initiatives were to take these three providers / networks offline for good. Would supply find a way to fulfill demand in the traditional manner, as the SY network did once the ROP's and NROP's of the world were forced out of business via the Haight Act? Or would the organized IOP world be eradicated for good, returning all participants to street level, back alley transactions to fulfill their needs?That's the question that I wrestle with more often than any other in this area
On a lighter note, and in terms of products, the same oldies but goodies remain in high demand, from the traditional PK products to benzos. I think the research chemical category holds some long term promise, as it offers some legitimate, interesting alternatives to scheduled products that could ultimately fall victim to interdiction efforts, and that should prove to remain shielded from such efforts as a result of various legal complexities associated with chemical compositions and drug laws. Put simply, the "mad scientists" of the better living through chemistry world can, and will likely continue to, custom craft lifestyle products that are one molecule away from falling into scheduled classes, yet remain perfectly legal. By the time legislative efforts catch up to these products and allow for interdiction initiatives, chemists will have already found 15 new formulas that are again perfectly legal. Long term, I look to this niche of the industry to offer us the greatest hope, although it does have its limits, particularly in the pain management realm. I believe that the RC industry will offer some excellent, effective alternatives in the anti-anxiety and stimulant product classes, but aren't likely to offer pain patients many alternatives. Of course, the good old fashioned medicinal MJ niche continues to grow and thrive, albeit quietly and somewhat under the radar, at least where boards like DBG are concerned. I've come to be quite impressed with the level of discretion and professionalism among MM vendors, and the broader IOP industry would benefit from following their example in terms of operating methods as they look to sustain their operations going forward.
Hopefully that was a somewhat coherent, off the cuff account of my observations of the past 12 months or so, but if I've missed my mark where your questions were concerned, don't hesitate to steer me back on course! /default_biggrin.png