The weather conditions in Seattle will make the Seahawks home field advantage even more significant, and the Saints just aren't the same team on the road. Seahawks are an 8 point favorite, so I'm taking the Seahawks to cover.
Seattle 31 - New Orleans 20
Rain and win in New England will be a factor, but I don't see it impacting the game one way or the other. To win this one, my Colts MUST contain the run game while still staying in press man, one on one coverage, so the outcome's going to come down to the Colts' corners ability to win their individual assignments more often than not, allowing the safeties to pinch down into the box to stop a potent 3 way Patriots rushing attack and to allow Mathis to bring heat on Brady. Both QB's are elite, and will get theirs, but this one will be tight, and Brady's a first ballot hall of famer with 3 rings, so if it comes down to the last possession, and the Patriots have the ball, I see Brady breaking Indy's heart yet again, although I'd love to be wrong. That said, New England is a 7.5 point favorite, and it'll be closer than that, so my money is on the Colts and the points.
Note: For you fellow degenerate gamblers out there, take the Wookie's stone cold lock of the week and place your bets now, taking the under in this game. The current over - under is 53, and with heavy rain in New England and two injury depleted offenses, I can't envision a combined 54 points being scored.
New England 27 - Colts 24
Despite having home field advantage, Cam Newton hasn't been on this big stage before, and Jim Harbaugh remains committed to the run with Frank Gore, and the Niners are one of the few teams in the league that are built to be just as good on the road as at home. The Niners are a 3 point favorite, and I think that Gore and Kap will work in tandem in the running game to set up a few big plays down field that will be back breakers. Newton is likely to start pressing if he gets behind early, which could lead to mistakes that an opportunistic Niners secondary will capitalize on. The Wookie's money is on the Niners to cover.
San Francisco 23 - Carolina 20
In the weekend's final match up, I'm going to break my usual policy of betting against Peyton to cover the spread. In fact, over the past 5 seasons, 6 seeds are 5-2 against 1 seeds, so chew on that for a second. I said during the last week of the regular season that if San Diego managed to sneak into the playoffs, they'd be the most dangerous underdog to face, and my thoughts haven't changed. Despite playing at home and being a 10 point favorite, Denver is vulnerable to a Chargers team playing with very high energy, and with nothing to lose. History tells us that the divisional round usually produces at least 1 major upset, and I have a feeling this is the one.
San Diego 30 - Denver 28